CARR

CARR's Earnings Track Record: Beats vs. Price Action

Carrier Global (CARR) has reported better-than-expected earnings in 7 of its last 8 quarters, producing an 88% beat rate and an average earnings surprise of 4.6%. That track record includes the most recent four reports: a 5.3% beat on 2026-07-28 ($0.86 vs. $0.817), a 12.2% beat on 2026-04-30 ($0.57 vs. $0.508), a 5.7% beat on 2025-10-28 ($0.67 vs. $0.634), and the lone miss in the sequence on 2026-02-05, when EPS of $0.34 came in 9.3% below the $0.3749 estimate.

Yet the headline beat rate does not automatically translate into directional price follow-through. Across the last eight reports, the average 5-day post-earnings move is just 0.29%, which GammaQC classifies as "flat." The individual outcomes show why: after the July 2026 beat, the stock fell 5.13% the next day and registered a null% 5-day change. After the April 2026 beat, it rose 0.67% the next session and only 0.07% over the following five days. Even the February 2026 miss was followed by a 1.3% next-day gain and a 2.84% five-day gain. The October 2025 beat produced a 3.42% one-day pop but a -2.03% five-day result. The pattern shows CARR's earnings events can be faded or reversed regardless of whether the print beats or misses.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the October 27 Report

The next scheduled earnings date is October 27, 2026, before the market open, with a published consensus EPS estimate of $0.82. With an 88% beat rate and a 4.6% average surprise over the past two years, options markets can price in elevated expectations for CARR to clear the $0.82 number. Traders following flow focus on two things: implied volatility levels in strikes expiring just after October 27, and whether the options surface is skewed toward calls versus puts.

A high beat rate alone does not imply a bullish setup. Because CARR's average 5-day post-earnings drift is just 0.29%, the market's real expectation can be fully priced into the stock before the release. If the flow shows heavy call buying into the event, the unofficial consensus may already reflect confidence in an EPS beat, which raises the bar for the reaction. Options analysis should couple that volatility view with the fact that the stock is currently trading at $61.81, below its 50-day EMA of $67.18, with an RSI of 36.1.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches For

Given this historical pattern, a disciplined trader does not assume a beat will produce a rally. The checklist starts with the deviation from the $0.82 estimate: the average earnings surprise of 4.6% would imply a print near $0.86, but the July 2026 beat of that same magnitude was met with a 5.13% next-day decline. The trader then watches the first 60 minutes of trading on October 27 for whether the opening gap holds or reverses. After the July 2026 5.3% beat, the stock gapped down; after the October 2025 5.7% beat, it gapped up then faded over the next week.

Relative strength is another input. The current RSI of 36.1 puts the stock near technically oversold territory, while the price sits $5.37 below the 50-day EMA of $67.18. That pre-event positioning can matter as much as the print itself, because earnings is when trapped positioning can unwind. Traders also track five-day drift rather than just the overnight gap: with the historical average at 0.29%, the move worth modeling is the multi-day trend, not the headline reaction.

For a deeper dive into how sell-side analysts, institutional holders, and quant models are positioned against this same dataset, readers should review the full institutional verdict on the platform.